Arbitrage Betting Explained
Arbitrage (or "arbing") exploits pricing discrepancies between bookmakers to lock in a profit regardless of the result. Here's how it works, how to find arbs, and the real risks involved.
What Is Arbitrage Betting?
Arbitrage betting occurs when the combined implied probabilities from backing all possible outcomes across different bookmakers adds up to less than 100%. This mathematical gap allows you to cover every outcome and guarantee a profit regardless of the result.
How to Calculate Arbitrage Stakes
To guarantee equal profit regardless of outcome, you need to divide your total stake proportionally between the two sides based on the odds:
Stake on Outcome 1 = Total Stake × (1/Odds₁) / (1/Odds₁ + 1/Odds₂)
The maths gets complex fast — use our free Arbitrage Calculator to compute exact stake allocations and guaranteed profit for any two or three-way arb instantly.
Types of Arbitrage
✌️ Two-way arb
Markets with two outcomes (tennis, head-to-head). Easiest type to find and execute.
⚽ Three-way arb
Football 1X2 markets — home win, draw, away win. Require backing all three at different bookmakers.
📈 Acca arb
Rare but high-value. Enhanced accumulator odds at one bookmaker create an arb with singles at another.
🔄 Exchange arb
Laying on the exchange at odds shorter than the back price at a bookmaker.
Real-World Risks of Arbitrage
Prolific arbers are quickly identified and restricted or banned by bookmakers. Arbing is the fastest route to a gubbed account. See our Gubbing guide.
Prices change fast. By the time you back one side, the other may have moved. You can end up with an incomplete arb and exposure to a loss.
Bookmakers may limit your maximum stake on specific markets, preventing you from placing the optimal arb stake to guarantee profit.
In rare cases, bookmakers void grossly mispriced odds (palpable errors). Always check terms before placing large arb stakes.
Arbing vs Matched Betting: Which Is Better?
| Feature | Matched Betting | Arbitrage Betting |
|---|---|---|
| Profit Source | Free bets & promotions | Pricing discrepancies across bookmakers |
| Account Longevity | Much better managed | Very short — accounts get restricted fast |
| Capital Required | Low (£100–£500) | Higher (need money sitting in many accounts) |
| Complexity | Moderate | High (requires speed and multiple active accounts) |
| Long-term Viability | High | Low (due to account churn) |
Is there a "true" price for every bet?
Arbing and matched betting are great, but the pros look at the mathematical reality behind the odds. Let's explore the core concept of Value Betting.
Next: Value Betting →